I was curious to see if an Olympic team would get a boost in its share of total medals when competing in their home country. Sort of like a "home field advantage." The short answer: Yes, there is. On average, the home/hosting country experiences a 2.6% share point lift in medals from the prior Olympics and then experiences a -2.4% share point decline in the following Olympics.
I took a look at the past 11 Winter Olympics that were held from 1988 to 2026. As an illustration, here is the performance of the South Korean delegation during the 2014 Games (in Russia), the 2018 Games (in South Korea) and then the 2022 Games (in China):
South Korea's Share of Total Winter Olympic Medals
Olympic Year/Host Country/South Korea's Share of Medals
2014 / Russia / 2.7%
2018 / South Korea / 5.5%
2022 / China / 2.7%
And here are the past 11 Olympics, looking at the host country's CHANGE in Share of medals versus the prior and subsequent Olympics:
Host Country / Change in Share Points when Hosting Olympics / Change in Share Points after Hosting
Canada/ 0.2%/ 0.5%
France/ 3.8%/ -2.5%
Norway/ 2.5%/ -2.0%
Japan/ 2.1%/ -4.0%
USA/ 8.2%/ -4.6%
Italy/ -1.2%/ -2.4%
Canada/ 0.6%/ -1.6%
Russia/ 4.8%/ -4.3%
South Korea/ 2.8%/ -2.8%
China/ 1.6%/ -0.3%
Italy/ 3.4%/ na
Average/ 2.6%/ -2.4%
But its also probably:
-Higher investment in the Olympics in host nation lead up; (ie. more funds available to Olympic teams for training, facilities, coaching, nutrition, etc) -- sponsors aren't dumb. Olympic champion on home turf is bigger deal than somewhere else
-Training advantage. The Italian speedskaters, skiers, sledders have probably had way way more ice/course time than their competitors.
-And lastly, athletes probably just more comfortable. It's their time zone, their language, their food, geography, etc
I think you may be on to something, but the host countries do not receive automatic invites for every single event, and the host country athletes must still meet minimum eligibility requirements set by various international sports federations and the International Olympic Committee. As just one example, Italy got to participate in hockey this Olympics, but the outcome was fairly dismal. Still, you may be onto something here and that may be impacting the results to some degree.
But its also probably:
-Higher investment in the Olympics in host nation lead up; (ie. more funds available to Olympic teams for training, facilities, coaching, nutrition, etc) -- sponsors aren't dumb. Olympic champion on home turf is bigger deal than somewhere else
-Training advantage. The Italian speedskaters, skiers, sledders have probably had way way more ice/course time than their competitors.
-And lastly, athletes probably just more comfortable. It's their time zone, their language, their food, geography, etc
It’s funny but your last two points were what originally motivated me to take a look at the data in the first place. I hadn’t thought about your first point which could also be a factor. In any event, between your observations and pjacs18 point about automatic bids, I’d bet this all explains what I’m seeing in the data.